All is Not Well(s)

The name once synonymous with the future of the JP Ricciardi led Toronto Blue Jays has now been transformed into the name most synonymous with failure and utter disappointment.  I dug up the following out of the archives:

“All-Star center fielder Vernon Wells agreed Friday night to a seven-year, $126 million contract extension with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Wells’ pact, the sixth-largest in baseball history, would give him a $25.5 million signing bonus, no-trade clause and guarantee him the right to opt out of his contract after four years. In addition, he could earn bonuses of $250,000 for MVP, $200,000 for World Series MVP, $150,000 for league championship series MVP and $100,000 for receiving the most votes in his league in All-Star game balloting.”

At the time of the signing, Peter Gammons called him a legit top-5 centre fielder and one of the top fielding CF in the game (FYI – Wells has only posted positive UZR numbers three times in his career).  He went on to state he was well worth the new contract extension he signed with the Jays.  A man the Jays had to sign to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox going forward.  To be honest, I don’t remember many Blue Jays fans or analysts who were overly outspoken against this move. 

Wells signed this monstrosity of a contract after the 2006 season.  That season Wells played in 154 games, had 185 hits, 40 doubles and 32 HRs.  He also posted a respectable 7.5 UZR in CF for the Jays that year and clearly was an above average defender.  With the combo of a solid offensive campaign and above average glove at a premium position V-Dub was worth 5.8 wins above replacement level, a career high for Wells.  He also had a respectable .382 wOBA on the season and he even managed to swipe 17 bases for a Blue Jays team that absolutely hates the stolen base, or more accurately the “caught stealing” stat.

Overall it was a great 2006 season for Wells, but in retrospect it didn’t come without its share of red flags.  He wasn’t showing improved patience at the plate (8.1% walk rate), though he wasn’t whiffing at an alarming pace either (15.2%).  He was fishing outside of the strike zone a bit much (28% outside zone swing rate)   His HR/FB ratio for the season was 15%, slightly above his career rate of 11.8% though that could have swayed his HR total by about 5-6 HRs, nothing to sneeze at come contract time.

To call him a one-year wonder wouldn’t have been fair either.  He was an above average hitting CF for pretty much his entire career up until 2006.  In 2003, he posted his best season with a .386 wOBA, belting 33 HRs and adding 49 doubles and posting a respectable 317/359/550 slash line in 161 games.  He hit a consistent amount of HRs, drove in his share of runs and played slightly above or right at league average defence centre field until from 2001 until 2006.

Let’s fast forward to 2009.  To call Wells season anything other than miserable would be a blatant lie.  His slash line of 250/302/392 is barely passable even at a premium defensive position like CF.  Wells hasn’t benefited from much luck this season, his BABIP sits a .271 and his paltry 13 HRs can be attributed to his rather unlucky HR/FB rate of 6.5% (a career low – and half of his career rate).  He hasn’t squared the ball as much this year (line drive rate 14.5%), but his fly ball and ground ball rates are right at his career averages.  Even his outside-zone swing percent is at 24.2%, which is lower than both his 2006, 2007 and 2008 rates.

This season Vernon Wells has a negative WAR (wins above replacement).  That’s right, Wells has been so miserable with the bat and glove this season he has actually been a full win WORSE than a replacement level player (for example, a Russ Adams).  Again, among all qualified players in the major leagues, Vernon Wells is the least valuable player in the game.  Furthermore, according to fangraphs expected salary based on his current WAR, Wells actually owes the Jays 4.4 million dollars this year.  For comparison, in 2006, Wells actually gave the Jays the value of a player worth 21.4 million dollars.

So I guess that leaves only one question, what happened?  The halo that shone brightly above Vernon’s bald head quickly dissipated after Wells struggled pretty mightily in 2007.  While Wells rebounded slightly in 2008, he has nearly hit rock bottom in 2009.  As miserable a season that Wells is having with the bat, he has been equally miserable with the glove.  His UZR currently sits at -18.5, good for dead last among qualified CF.  For those interested Adam Dunn currently has a -21.9 UZR in the OF (albeit at LF/RF). 

In my opinion Vernon Wells just happened to cash in at the perfect time.  It was the perfect storm for a player coming off a fairly good season and who was coined as the must have “Franchise” player by fans and media alike.  The economy was stronger, the Jays were actually spending money and the overall knowledge of the game (especially in regards to defence) wasn’t nearly as strong even three years ago as it is today. 

One final note, under the extension, Wells has the right to terminate his agreement after the 2011 season and become eligible for free agency.  A man can dream can’t he?

A Case for Malpractice

So, what was wrong with Roy Halladay the past month?  From the media headlines I had been reading, it sounded as though our ace Doc had turned into Erik Hanson overnight.  Various conspiracy theorists wrote that Halladay must be distracted after a very busy trade deadline.  Or that his arm was tired.  Or that he had actually wanted to be moved and was pitching this way well, out of spite? 

We were being inundated with so much talk of Halladay not being himself I actually thought it must be true.  After all, being that Toronto is one of the most media savvy cities in North America they just had to be onto something, right?  Over the past 30 days (this does include the CG 1-hit shutout vs. the Yankees on September 4^th, 2009) Roy’s win loss record (a stat hugely out of any pitchers control) was only 3-4.  How could Roy live with himself? 

Let’s be honest, the offense has been pretty paltry and the once proud Jays defence has taken quite a hit with the departures of defensive stalwarts Scott Rolen (15.2 career UZR/150) and the much maligned and fan whipping boy Alex Rios (career UZR/150 sits at an impressive 12.7).  They were replaced by the stone hands of Edwin Encarnacion (-12.9 UZR/150 this season at 3B) and the fullback turned right-fielder Travis Snider (very small sample size aside, a brutal -22.6 UZR/150 thus far). 

Thankfully Halladay is a ground ball oriented pitcher (past 30 days, 49.2% ground ball rate – career 56.4%) so adding Snider (and now DH turned LF Adam Lind) to the outfield doesn’t necessarily affect Roy’s overall numbers as much as a poor infielder would, but it can’t help.  I dare say the legendary Walter Johnson would have trouble winning in front of these Jays right now.

Even the once proud CF Vernon Wells decided he doesn’t see the need to actually track down fly balls anymore (past 2 seasons UZR/150 sit at -24.0 & -19.3 respectively).  To put it bluntly, the Jays outfield defence is absolutely abysmal.  Considering the porous defence behind him you can see why Roy Halladay has struggled so mightily the past 30 days or so.  Or was he struggling? 

Let’s take a deeper look.  In the past 30 days Roy Halladay has managed:

-8.57 K/9, 1.71 BB/9, 5.0 K/BB, 1.07 HR/9 to go along with a tidy 3.37 FIP (fielding independent pitching).

All of the above numbers are in spite of a high(ish) .338 BABIP, low(ish) strand rate of 68.1% and around league average HR/FB ratio of 12.8%.   He’s still pounding the zone (66.3% first strike rate) and getting plenty of swings outside the strike zone (29.4% outside-zone swings).  He hasn’t had the slightest bit of luck yet his numbers over the past month are still outstanding by any measure. 

Before his CG 1-hit shutout of the Yankees, his numbers obviously weren’t quite as impressive.  In the six starts before his last, his main source of trouble rested on the fact he had given up 54 hits in 42 innings pitched.   Of course as we all know the pitcher has zero control of the ball once it leaves his hand from the pitcher’s mound and Roy was clearly suffering from both bad luck and bad Toronto defence.  He didn’t have much luck on fly balls either, as over 18% of his fly balls turned into HRs which is well over his career HR/FB rate of 10.4%.  However, he still had his impeccable command working as he posted an impressive K to BB ratio of 36:5 during the same span.

Another popular opinion making the rounds was that Roy’s arm was getting tired or being overused.  However, the velocity on his 2-seamer has been 92.6 mph and on his cutter 91.5 mph.  He’s actually been throwing the ball slightly harder over the past month of baseball.  What’s more amazing is not just how well Halladay has been pitching but who he was pitching well against.  His past 7 starts have lined up like this: NYY, BAL, @TB, BOS, TB, @BOS, and NYY.  Six of Halladay’s past seven starts have come against arguably the three best teams in all of baseball.

To me Roy Halladay is still evolving as a pitcher, even at the age of 32.  He is a pitcher’s pitcher, who has managed nothing but success even while pitching during the height of the steroid era, all while presumably being clean himself.  He has nearly ditched the 2-seam sinking fastball in favour of his cut fastball over the past few seasons with great success.  Here is the percentage of cutters thrown since he started throwing it in 2004 – 2.5, 7.5, 19.3, 25.2, and 33.2 all the way to a healthy 42.2% of the time this season.  He only throws his fastball around 30% of the time now. 

This is probably a sound strategy and his cutter rates as one of baseball’s most effective pitches according to fangraphs pitch type values.  With the increased success of the cutter has come a more effective way to deal with left-handed batters, always a boon to a right-handed pitcher.  On the season, Halladay has better overall numbers versus lefties this season than right-handed batters (lower ERA, whip & batting average vs. the southpaws).

There are plenty of things that need fixing with the Jays right now but let’s just put this one myth to bed immediately.  Roy Halladay is just fine, thanks.